Ethanol Price Trend Q2 2026: Global Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices & Index

 The Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026 showed two different directions across the global market. While ethanol prices increased in markets linked to the United States, prices in Brazil-linked markets moved downward because of sufficient supply and softer export demand. 

This difference made the second quarter of 2026 an important period for understanding how supply availability, international trade, and industrial demand influence global ethanol prices. The Ethanol Prices trend also showed that prices can move differently across countries depending on the origin of the product. 

The Ethanol Price Chart reflected these changes throughout the quarter, while the Ethanol Price Index highlighted the gap between US-linked and Brazilian-linked markets. Looking ahead, the Ethanol Price Forecast will depend largely on supply conditions, export demand, and buying activity in major importing countries.

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Global Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026

During the second quarter of 2026, the global ethanol market experienced a clear difference between the two major supply origins: the United States and Brazil.

In the US market, Ethanol Prices increased as domestic supply remained tight and export demand stayed firm. Buyers in several international markets continued to depend on US-origin ethanol, which supported higher export prices. As a result, the price increases were passed on to importing countries across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas.

Brazil followed a different pattern. The country had ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply, which placed downward pressure on export prices. Softer export demand also contributed to the decline. Importing countries purchasing Brazilian-origin ethanol generally experienced lower prices during the quarter.

June brought another important change. Prices corrected in most markets, including several that had recorded strong gains earlier in the quarter. US-linked markets generally saw smaller declines, while Brazil-linked markets experienced further price decreases. However, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom recorded modest additional gains in their US-origin import markets.

These movements show that Ethanol Prices do not depend on demand alone. The amount of product available, its country of origin, and the cost of obtaining supplies from international markets can all affect the final price.

US Ethanol Prices Rise on Tight Supply

The United States was one of the main sources of upward price movement during Q2 2026. Export prices for anhydrous ethanol at FOB Houston increased by approximately 12.94% over the quarter.

The main reason was the combination of tight domestic supply and firm export demand. When available supply becomes limited while buyers continue to place orders, sellers generally gain greater pricing strength. This was reflected in the steady rise in US export valuations during the quarter.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications also supported the market. Ethanol is used in different industries, so changes in buying activity across these sectors can influence demand for available supplies.

However, the upward trend did not continue without interruption. In June 2026, US ethanol export prices fell by approximately 3.31%. This correction suggested that buyers had become more cautious with their purchases during the month.

Even with the June decline, the overall quarterly trend remained positive. The US market demonstrated how restricted supply and steady export demand can support prices, while changes in procurement activity can produce short-term corrections.

Ethanol Price Trend in Major Importing Countries

The increase in US export prices was reflected across many international destinations. Countries importing anhydrous ethanol from the United States generally recorded higher prices during Q2 2026.

India records the strongest increase

India recorded an increase of approximately 16.83% in US-origin ethanol import prices at CIF Nhava Sheva, making it the strongest quarterly gain among the US-linked markets covered in this report.

The increase reflected the impact of rising US export prices on Indian import valuations. Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent buyers helped maintain market support. However, prices declined by around 0.78% in June, showing that a quarterly increase can coexist with a short-term correction.

India's experience highlights the importance of monitoring product origin when evaluating international ethanol prices. US-origin and Brazilian-origin ethanol followed different directions during the same period.

The Netherlands and Belgium show strong growth

The Netherlands recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 15.09% in US-origin ethanol import prices at CIF Rotterdam. Belgium followed with a rise of around 13.94% at CIF Antwerp.

Both markets remained firm during June, unlike most other US-linked destinations. Prices increased by a further 0.92% in the Netherlands and 0.41% in Belgium.

These gains suggest that import demand remained sufficiently firm to support prices despite the broader correction seen across international markets. They also demonstrate why individual destination markets should be evaluated separately rather than assuming that every country follows the same price direction.

Other markets also experience higher prices

Several other countries recorded notable increases in US-origin ethanol prices during Q2 2026.

• South Korea: Prices increased by approximately 12.55%, followed by a June decline of 3.01%.

• Saudi Arabia: Prices rose by 12.08%, before falling by 2.17% in June.

• Colombia: Prices increased by 11.16%, followed by a 1.88% monthly decline.

• Egypt: Prices rose by 12.58%, before correcting by 2.82% in June.

• United Kingdom: Prices increased by 13.03% over the quarter and rose another 0.77% in June.

• Germany: Prices gained 11.23%, followed by a 6.16% June decline.

• Canada: Prices increased by 11.57%, with a 2.13% decline in June.

• Indonesia: Prices rose by 11.54%, followed by a 5.71% decline.

• Singapore: Prices increased by 10.24%, before falling by 4.01% in June.

• Mexico: Prices rose by 9.85%, followed by a 7.37% decline.

• Taiwan: Prices increased by 8.50%, but fell by 9.30% in June.

• Thailand: Prices rose by 7.53%, followed by a 6.22% decline.

• Chile: Prices increased by 11.96%, before declining by 5.61%.

• Philippines: US-origin prices rose by 12.08%, followed by a 3.47% June decline.

• Peru: Prices increased by 6.69%, but recorded a sharp 13.19% decline in June.

These figures show that the US supply situation influenced prices across a wide geographical area. At the same time, the size of the June correction varied considerably. Peru and Taiwan experienced much sharper monthly declines than India or Colombia, while some European markets continued to rise.

For buyers, the practical lesson is that a strong quarterly increase does not necessarily mean prices will keep rising every month. Monitoring monthly movements alongside quarterly performance provides a clearer picture of market conditions.

Brazil Ethanol Prices Decline on Ample Supply

Brazil experienced a different market situation during Q2 2026. Export prices for anhydrous ethanol at FOB Santos declined by approximately 6.74% over the quarter.

The main reason was the availability of ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply. When sellers have sufficient product available, they may need to offer more competitive prices to attract buyers. Softer export demand added further pressure to the market.

The downward movement continued in June, when Brazilian ethanol export prices fell by another 5.33%. This indicated that supply conditions remained comfortable and that the market had not yet regained upward momentum.

The Brazilian market provides a useful contrast with the United States. While tight supply supported higher US export prices, abundant Brazilian supply placed pressure on prices. This difference in market conditions was one of the defining features of the global ethanol market during the quarter.

Brazil-Linked Import Markets Follow the Downward Trend

Lower Brazilian export prices were passed through to several importing countries. The extent of the decline varied by destination, but the overall direction remained negative.

The Philippines recorded a decrease of approximately 7.26% in Brazilian-origin ethanol import prices at CIF Manila. Prices declined by a further 6.36% in June.

Singapore recorded a quarterly decrease of around 7.18%, followed by a 3.74% decline in June. South Korea experienced a 6.94% quarterly reduction, while Japan recorded a decrease of approximately 6.38%.

In Europe, the Netherlands saw Brazilian-origin ethanol import prices decline by 6.14%, while Belgium recorded a reduction of 5.54%. Both markets experienced additional decreases in June.

India recorded a relatively small quarterly decline of around 0.75% in Brazilian-origin ethanol import prices at CIF Nhava Sheva. However, the market fell by another 5.79% in June, showing that the downward pressure became more pronounced toward the end of the quarter.

These differences are important because the same importing country can experience contrasting price movements depending on whether the ethanol comes from the United States or Brazil. India's US-origin prices rose sharply during Q2, while its Brazilian-origin prices declined. Similar origin-based differences were visible in other markets.

For importers, comparing supply origins can therefore provide useful information when evaluating procurement options. Nevertheless, the lowest export price does not automatically mean the lowest final cost, as shipping, insurance, handling, and other import-related expenses can also affect the delivered price.

Ethanol Price Chart and Index: What the Data Shows

The Ethanol Price Chart for Q2 2026 highlights three important market patterns.

First, US-linked prices generally moved upward throughout the quarter. Tight domestic supply and firm export demand supported higher FOB Houston prices, and these increases passed through to importing markets.

Second, Brazilian-linked prices moved lower. Ample sugarcane-based supply and softer export demand reduced FOB Santos valuations and placed downward pressure on prices in importing countries.

Third, June introduced a correction across most markets. Many US-linked destinations recorded declines after several months of increases, while Brazilian-linked markets experienced additional decreases. The Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom were notable exceptions in the US-origin market, as each recorded a further increase during June.

The Ethanol Price Index can help readers understand these broader movements by showing how prices change over time. However, the origin of the product must be considered when interpreting the data. A single global trend can hide important differences between exporting countries and importing destinations.

For businesses that buy, sell, or use ethanol, reviewing both the overall index and individual market prices can help explain why purchasing costs may rise in one supply route and fall in another.

Key Factors Affecting Ethanol Prices

Several factors played an important role in shaping ethanol prices during Q2 2026.

1. Supply availability

Supply was the most visible difference between the two main origins. Tight US supply supported higher export prices, while ample Brazilian supply contributed to lower prices. In general, a market with limited available product is more likely to experience upward price pressure when demand remains firm.

2. Export and import demand

Demand from international buyers influenced the direction of trade prices. Firm export demand helped support US-origin ethanol, while softer export demand contributed to weaker Brazilian valuations. Import demand also explained why some destinations continued to record gains even when other markets corrected.

3. Fuel blending and industrial use

Ethanol is used in fuel blending and industrial applications, including solvent-related uses. Continued demand from these sectors supported market activity during the quarter. Changes in purchasing requirements can affect how quickly buyers place orders and how much product they are willing to purchase at prevailing prices.

4. Country of origin

The origin of ethanol was particularly important in Q2 2026. US-origin supplies generally became more expensive, while Brazilian-origin supplies became cheaper. Buyers comparing markets need to consider the source of the product rather than relying only on the destination country's name.

5. Monthly procurement decisions

June's price corrections showed that purchasing activity can change even when the broader quarterly trend is clear. Buyers who adjust order volumes or delay purchases can influence short-term demand. This is one reason monthly data should be reviewed alongside quarterly averages or percentage changes.

Ethanol Price Forecast: What to Watch Next

The Ethanol Price Forecast following Q2 2026 should focus on whether the conditions that shaped the quarter continue into the next period. The available data does not establish a definite future price direction, but it identifies several important factors to monitor.

For US-origin ethanol, continued tight supply and firm export demand could provide support to prices. However, the June corrections suggest that buyers may become more selective when prices remain elevated. If procurement activity weakens, prices could experience further adjustments even if the broader market remains relatively firm.

For Brazilian-origin ethanol, ample sugarcane-based supply will remain an important factor to watch. If availability continues to exceed buying interest, prices may face further pressure. A change in supply conditions or stronger export demand could alter that direction.

Import markets may also behave differently from one another. The June gains in the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom show that destination-specific demand can sometimes offset the broader market movement. In other countries, sharper monthly declines suggest that buyers may be more sensitive to price increases or may have adjusted their purchasing schedules.

A useful forecasting approach is to monitor export prices at FOB Houston and FOB Santos, compare import prices across major destinations, and review the monthly changes in the Ethanol Price Chart and Ethanol Price Index. This combination can help buyers and market observers identify whether price movements are broad-based or limited to specific supply routes.

Rather than assuming that prices will continue in one direction, businesses should consider different scenarios and regularly review new market information before making purchasing decisions.

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About Price Watch™

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