Ethanol Price Trend Q2 2026 | Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices and Index

 The Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026 was shaped by a clear split between the United States and Brazil. While US-linked ethanol markets moved higher because of tighter supply and stronger export demand, Brazil-linked markets moved lower as abundant sugarcane-based supply kept prices under pressure. 

This difference between the two major origins was visible across several international markets and made the quarter an interesting period for ethanol buyers, sellers, importers, and other market participants.

Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026

During the second quarter of 2026, ethanol prices did not follow one single global direction. Instead, the market largely depended on where the ethanol came from.

US-linked markets recorded broad price increases. Tight availability in the domestic US market, together with steady export demand, pushed export prices higher. This increase was then reflected in the prices paid by buyers in countries importing ethanol from the United States.

Brazil followed a different path. Brazil had more sugarcane-based ethanol available, which created a more comfortable supply situation. With export demand softer, FOB Santos prices declined during the quarter. Import markets buying Brazilian ethanol also experienced lower prices.

This origin-based difference is one of the most important points when looking at the Ethanol Price Trend for Q2 2026.

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US-Linked Ethanol Prices Move Higher

The US market was one of the main sources of upward price pressure during Q2 2026. US ethanol export prices on an FOB Houston basis increased by around 12.94% during the quarter.

The main reason was relatively tight supply combined with firm export demand. When supply becomes less comfortable while buyers continue to need the product, prices generally have more room to rise. That was the basic market pattern seen during the quarter.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications also helped keep Ethanol Prices elevated.

The increase in the US market was passed through to many international destinations. Importers buying US-origin ethanol therefore faced higher CIF prices during the quarter.

Saudi Arabia Ethanol Price Trend

Saudi Arabia saw its ethanol import price from the US increase by around 12.08% in Q2 2026.

The rise was largely connected to higher US export valuations. As FOB Houston prices increased, the effect moved through to CIF Jeddah pricing.

Demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent buyers remained steady, helping maintain the higher price environment.

However, June brought a small correction. Saudi Arabian ethanol prices declined by approximately 2.17% during the month as buyers moderated procurement.

Colombia and South Korea See Strong Increases

Colombia recorded an increase of around 11.16% in its US-origin ethanol import prices during Q2. CIF Barranquilla prices moved higher as rising US FOB prices passed through into the import market.

South Korea also experienced a strong increase. Its US-origin ethanol import prices rose by approximately 12.55% during the quarter. CIF Busan prices followed the upward movement in US export values.

Both markets also experienced a correction in June. Colombia declined by around 1.88%, while South Korea fell by approximately 3.01%.

These changes show how quickly international import prices can respond when the underlying exporting market becomes tighter.

Europe Shows Some of the Strongest Gains

European markets recorded some of the biggest increases among the US-linked destinations.

Belgium's US-origin ethanol import prices increased by approximately 13.94% in Q2 2026. The Netherlands recorded an even stronger increase of around 15.09%.

The Netherlands therefore had one of the strongest quarterly increases among the markets covered in the Q2 data.

Interestingly, both countries moved against the broader June correction. Belgium increased by another 0.41% in June, while the Netherlands rose by approximately 0.92%.

The United Kingdom also remained firm. US-origin ethanol import prices in the UK increased by approximately 13.03% during Q2, followed by another 0.77% increase in June.

This suggests that import demand in these European markets remained comparatively firm even as many other markets began to see buyers step back.

India Records the Highest US-Origin Increase

India stood out among the US-linked markets.

US-origin ethanol import prices at Nhava Sheva increased by around 16.83% during Q2 2026. This was the strongest quarterly increase among the US-origin markets listed in the supplied data.

The increase reflected the combination of higher US FOB prices and steady demand from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications.

Despite the strong quarterly increase, June brought a small correction of around 0.78%. This was relatively mild compared with the larger corrections seen in some other markets.

The Indian market therefore entered the end of Q2 with prices still elevated despite the June adjustment.

Other US-Origin Markets

Several other destinations also recorded notable increases during Q2.

Taiwan's US-origin ethanol prices increased by around 8.50%, while Thailand rose by approximately 7.53%. Mexico recorded an increase of around 9.85%.

Indonesia increased by approximately 11.54%, the Philippines by 12.08%, Singapore by 10.24%, Germany by 11.23%, Chile by 11.96%, and Canada by 11.57%.

Egypt recorded an increase of approximately 12.58%, while Peru posted a smaller quarterly increase of around 6.69%.

The June corrections were more varied. Taiwan fell by about 9.30%, Thailand declined by 6.22%, Mexico dropped by 7.37%, and Indonesia declined by 5.71%.

Peru experienced the largest June correction among the US-linked markets, falling by around 13.19%.

These numbers show that although the broader US-origin market moved higher during Q2, individual importing countries experienced different levels of correction by the end of the quarter.

Brazil Moves in the Opposite Direction

Brazil provided the clearest contrast to the US market.

Brazilian ethanol export prices on an FOB Santos basis declined by around 6.74% during Q2 2026.

The main reason was ample sugarcane-based supply. When availability is comfortable and export demand is softer, sellers generally face greater pressure to keep prices competitive.

That situation kept Brazilian ethanol prices subdued throughout much of the quarter.

June added another decline of approximately 5.33%, showing that the softer market conditions continued into the final month of Q2.

Brazil-Origin Ethanol Prices in International Markets

The lower Brazilian export price was also reflected in international markets buying ethanol from Brazil.

The Philippines recorded a decline of approximately 7.26% in Brazilian-origin ethanol import prices during Q2. India declined by a much smaller 0.75%, while Japan fell by around 6.38%.

Belgium's Brazilian-origin ethanol prices decreased by approximately 5.54%, and the Netherlands declined by around 6.14%.

South Korea recorded a decline of approximately 6.94%, while Singapore saw the largest decrease among these markets at around 7.18%.

The June corrections continued in the same direction. Brazilian-origin ethanol prices declined further as loose supply conditions remained in place.

This was very different from the US-origin market, where supply tightness had been supporting higher prices.

Ethanol Price Chart: What Q2 2026 Shows

Looking at an Ethanol Price Chart for Q2 2026, the most noticeable feature would be the separation between US-linked and Brazil-linked markets.

US-linked prices would generally show an upward movement across April and May, followed by a correction in June in most destinations.

Brazil-linked prices, on the other hand, would show a downward pattern through the quarter, with additional weakness appearing in June.

The chart therefore tells a simple story: US supply was relatively tight, while Brazilian supply was relatively comfortable.

This difference was transmitted through international trade. Importers buying from the United States generally paid more, while buyers sourcing from Brazil benefited from softer prices.

Ethanol Price Index and Market Direction

The Ethanol Price Index during Q2 2026 can be understood through these contrasting supply conditions.

An index covering different global markets would have been influenced by the strong gains in US-linked destinations, particularly markets such as India, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and the United States itself.

At the same time, declines in Brazil and Brazilian-origin import markets created downward pressure.

This makes the Q2 period a good example of why looking only at an average global ethanol price can sometimes hide important market differences. Origin, freight route, local demand, and supply availability can all influence the price paid by an individual buyer.

June 2026: A Month of Correction

June was an important turning point in the quarter.

After prices increased through much of Q2 in US-linked markets, buyers became more cautious. Procurement was moderated in many destinations, leading to price corrections.

However, the correction was not universal.

Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom continued to record modest increases in June for US-origin ethanol. This suggests that demand in these markets remained firm enough to support prices despite the broader change in sentiment.

Brazil-linked markets had a different experience. Prices declined further in June because the underlying supply situation remained loose.

The result was a wider difference between the two origins as the quarter came to an end.

Ethanol Price Forecast: What the Q2 Pattern Suggests

Any Ethanol Price Forecast should be approached carefully because ethanol prices can change quickly with supply, demand, trade activity, and buying decisions.

Still, the Q2 2026 pattern provides a useful starting point.

If US ethanol supply remains tight and export demand continues to be firm, US-linked prices could remain supported. However, the June corrections show that buyers may become more price-sensitive after a strong increase.

For Brazil, continued availability of sugarcane-based ethanol could keep prices under pressure if export demand does not strengthen significantly.

The biggest factor to watch is therefore the balance between supply and demand at each origin.

What Buyers Should Watch

For ethanol buyers, Q2 2026 highlights the importance of watching both the exporting market and the destination market.

A buyer should not look only at the local import price. The origin of the product can make a major difference.

US-origin ethanol became more expensive across many destinations because higher FOB prices were passed through to CIF markets. Brazilian-origin ethanol became cheaper because abundant supply placed pressure on export prices.

The June corrections also show why procurement timing matters. Buying during a period of rising prices can lead to significantly different costs compared with purchasing after demand has softened.

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